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China has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.