Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Fall 37% During President Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The average count of per-day homicides monthly in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh government figures. Nevertheless, security experts have cautioned that homicide data might not point to improved national safety.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of nearly 55 murders a day in November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September of last year. This data was provided by the director of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded in these months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that in November the least number of murders were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel infighting, alongside the government’s heavily military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her public safety plan for an seemingly steeper decline in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President stated: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Enhanced coordination between various departments.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security analysts warned that relying on homicide numbers to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is notably true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be positive news if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the inclination to correctly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of daily killings was also an issue because it might hide periods when there were especially spiking levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean renders surges of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to official data. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

Yet in spite of these actions, Mexico remains grappling with high bloodshed, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to build a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” Vargas concluded.