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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

However the current race is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending together. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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