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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd